Here’s my threat assessment for the United States post the impeachment acquittal of Trump and the possible scenarios for the 2020 election cycle. I am putting these out there for you all to consider and to keep in the back of your minds as we move forward these nine months to the election as well as what we may see after November 8th 2020. Given recent events it is not hard to posit these scenarios as equally possible and all having grave import to the freedom of this nation and its people.
As we have seen so far, the elections systems are insecure, the government itself and the Framers intentions are all now in question as to what is real, and the net effect is this; we now have a president who believes he has the power to do anything and now likely will push the envelope before the election. However, if he wins this election, you will see the power grabs and the illegalities only increase, eroding the rule of law further with his co-conspirators in the DOJ and elsewhere.
What we have seen in the last week alone should have you all thinking about the actions to come, and what, if anything, the government can do about it. I will tell you straight up here right now, this is a slide into fascism boys and girls. In the last day we have seen the President Tweet a comment about the “unfair” sentencing of Roger Stone with an almost immediate response from the DOJ to throw out the sentencing guidelines and recommendations of the prosecution and with that, the resignation of the four DOJ lawyers who were handling the case for the government.
This. Is. Not. Normal.
…. And it’s just the start.
As we move into the Election cycle, I would hasten you all to go and read this piece in The Atlantic on the disinformation war to come. We are going to see an all out attack cycle not only from the outside, but from within in this election. Added to this, the outcomes of the election are a key factor in what may be to come and at what rate things happen. So, read on and consider these scenarios.
Things are going to be very messy.
The Election Cycle:
Scenario 1: Trump Wins The Election By The Electoral College Again
This is the most likely event that I foresee for the 2020 election. Given the information war to come, I am willing to say that what happened in 2016 will happen again given the polarity of the nation and the machinations on the part of the Republicans to fudge the vote. There will be no need for Russia to really weigh in here and tip the scales with hacking for this to happen, but imagine if we have a replay of 2016 though. Once Trump has won the second term he will have four more years to push the envelope and do whatever he likes. This is primarily because once the election is won, he has no reason to be restrained in any way.
Think about it, impeachment was a failure. The senate is willing to not only tow the party line in a partisan way, but to whole cloth eschew the constitution for Trumpism merely to stay in power. With the senate under his thrall, and the beliefs that Article Two says he can do whatever he pleases, he will overreach, and with the help of the senate and now the DOJ…
Well, you can see what that means.
Scenario 2: Trump Wins By A “Landslide”
Given the polling and the stats that have been pretty consistent, if Trump won by a landslide, there would definitely be something wrong with the process in 2020. If this were to come to pass, it would surely mean that the election had been manipulated in a way that we have only seen in countries in Africa and South America. No amount of persuasion allows for this scenario. So, if it happens the outcome will be these:
- The election will be investigated while Trump will still be in office
- The investigation will take a long time, and during that time Trump and his minions will do everything in their power to obfuscate
- The election would likely have to be re-run… But… Could Trump attempt a coup and declare a national emergency to keep power?
All of these scenarios are not as likely as the Electoral College win, but, this should scare you all because you know, he will not just leave the White House and allow for a free and fair election right?
Scenario 3: Trump Loses and Declares The Vote To Be Rigged
IF Trump loses the election, do you really all believe he will accede to the will of the people and leave? Do you further believe he will leave knowing that right after he does the SDNY will be slapping cuffs on him and trying him for crimes he committed pre election and after? The short answer to this is no, he will not willingly leave in my opinion.
So, with that said, let’s look at the scenario that he does lose, even losing the Electoral College. You all have seen him already use the terms “rigged” before in the first election, but now with so much on the line, he will immediately call for a recall. In fact, this may already be a contingency plan that the Russians or others can help with by actively penetrating our election systems. The damage would only have to be the fact that some votes were changed or databases were abused, that is all it would take to call into question the vote, and for Trump to use his powers as president to mandate an emergency situation in which he will retain power.
Once again, if this happens, the elections investigations will take a long time, and in that interim Trump will still be in power and able to overreach to keep it. So far, I have little faith in the system (e.g. the government) to stop him from doing this. We have seen how Impeachment went, and we have seen just how dangerous a totally tribal majority is in power.
Use of the DOJ As A Weapon:
Scenario 1: Trump And DOJ Start Arresting Opponents
We are already seeing this play out with Barr and Trump. With the DOJ now directly accepting disinformation dirt from Rudy for the 2020 campaign, I have little doubt that that information will now be used as a means to an end of creating charges at the most, but at the least reasons for search warrants and the like for the DOJ to start using against Trumps opponents (primarily Biden at this time)
Right now Trump has an enemies list, but first on that list seems to be Bolton. If Bolton is suddenly presented with search warrants or arrested, this will be the first domino to fall in a cascade of abuse that Trump and Barr will carry out. If there is nothing to stop them arresting Bolton, expect others on that enemies list to be next. Post re-election, you will likely see this escalate and the enemies list will grow as well.
Scenario 2: Trump Pardons and Free’s Manafort & Stone
As of yesterday, the events around Trump and Barr’s manipulation of the DOJ shows you where they are willing to go for their peeps. It is likely that Trump will Pardon Stone after the Judge decides whatever she is going to give him. She does have discretion, so, one hopes that the original 7-9 year stint is what she chooses to do. However, if that happens, yeah, he will get pardoned and inserted back into the election cycle where Trump would like him.
Manafort too will also get a pardon, likely after re-election. This will also allow Manafort to re-kindle his ties to Ukraine and help Rudy as well. Trump will pardon Manafort most of all for his steadfast not being a rat and rolling over on Trump. This is the real key to this happening. This will set the precedent for others, like any other mob boss, Trump will show that if you do time for him, he will reward you later for not being a rat.
Scenario 3: Trump and Barr Close Cases Against Flynn & Erik Prince
Next in line are Flynn and Prince. My assessment will be that these two will slip away for two different reasons. Flynn will get away because he dealt with the government in the first place, but, he also did not totally rat out Trump. It’s been obvious that he has been holding back and obfuscating, so whatever it is, he has given enough to get leniency from the government, but with Barr in DOJ, well, they can just make it all go away right?
Erik Prince will get good treatment from Trump and have his case tossed because Prince is the wet works guy that Trump needs for the proxy wars and connections. This too will likely happen after re-election.
Scenario 4: Trump Starts Removing Non Conforming Justices
This is already starting to happen. The administration recently set forth the idea that they were going to “investigate” doing this in sanctuary cities. Those left leaning justices need to be removed according to Trump. Of course, if this happens just to sanctuary city justices I will be truly surprised. This is a means to an end. If you will note, Trump has been putting in more right wing justices than anyone every has. The control of the judicial system is a keystone in the ultra rights playbook, so don’t expect this to be forgotten.
Scenario 5: Trump and His Operatives Start Disinformation Campaigns Against Journalists and Starts Arresting Them
In the run up to the 2020 election you will see directed attacks on reporters by the Trump admin and the Republican machine. If you read the above linked disinformation story in The Atlantic you can see how Trumps son Don Jr, is directly working with operatives on caching dirt on reporters to sow disinformation on and use dirty tricks against to discredit anyone who opposes them. Post re-election this will likely continue if not actually escalate. (As Trump becomes more aggressive without checks against him and as the media continues to do its job)
You might be reading this and thinking that I am just paranoid.
But, what we are actively seeing today is not a slide into a greater democracy. These tactics, the overall machinations by the Republican party (aka Trump party) are all indicators of an overall planned slide into authoritarian tactics. Given that the laws of the land have not been able to stop Trump and the Russians so far, has shown the inherent weaknesses of the American systems that have been attacked. With the rule of law being presently slowly poisoned by Barr’s acquiescence to Trumps will, we are sliding further and further into a quasi fascist state. The longer Trump is in power and keeps pushing the envelope without reproach, the further and further from autocracy to totalitarianism we will be.
The system has been challenged and we are finding that it is insecure and unable to right itself. These scenarios are just posits, but if they come to pass, you had better be thinking of an exit plan.
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